Wednesday, July 16, 2003

saddam ain't dumb

i would like to think that someone in the intelligence community or elsewhere in the current administration would have thought of this, but in light of all that is coming out about their collective lack of intelligence, perhaps no one has.

what if we are playing right into Saddam's hand? Think about it -- he has had plenty of time to prepare for an invasion. he has had plenty of time to strategize how best to respond to overwhelming military force and the subsequent expected occupation of the country. in short, he has prepared to do exactly what is happening right now -- guerilla war with the US.

here is how i am figuring this...

1) take all of the above into consideration
2) consider that the iraqi army really didn't put up that much of a fight
3) the cities that were expected to put up the most resistance (Tikrit et al) did not
4) Saddam is gone -- surely he is not dead -- we have no body nor any other evidence to support a claim of his death
5) he has been considered for some time to be a "survivor" -- i think that this means that he plans for all contingencies -- why not "allowing" his country to be taken over so he can then wage the kind of war that he knows he has the best chance of winning
6) the US underestimated all kinds of things about the invasion of Iraq (manpower, reaction from the citizens, the actual resistance that they did encounter, etc.), why not Saddam's intelligence?
7) it would be the best way to win because Saddam knows that the US does not want a repeat of Viet Nam

Hey, if i can think all of this stuff up and i am not a "tin horn dictator," surely a real tin-horn dictator can.

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